Food Banks: A Bailout Too Far?

Food banks are somewhat provocative. The outcry of emotion usually triggers off related discussions, often about how austerity has pushed some members of society to use them and also how much food supermarkets and food stores throw away. Their individual usage has been increasing dramatically over the last five years and they have become a sensitive subject relating to the government’s austerity measures; you could even suggest their increase in use is one of the staples of the Conservative government.

But is their usage beneficial in both the short and long run?

Austerity has been covered in some depth on this blog, pieces here and here discuss some of the consequences of a government determined to slash public sector expenditure by the highest historical levels. The discussion here is aimed at the ramifications of such actions, particularly at the exponential increase of food bank supply and usage.

The Independent.

Moral hazard is a useful economic term, meaning when two parties engage into an agreement both can act independent from one another, contrary to the principles of the agreement itself. If you think of a car, a car has seat belts to prevent fatal and other injuries. But before cars had seat belts cars and the roads were safer because people drove slower. By driving slower there were less accidents. Of course you should wear a seat belt when driving, but it is an interesting argument and one that should make you think. If you drive slower you are less likely yo crash.

Another example is a salesperson with zero commission, the person receives a flat wage. Without the incentive of commission his or her business activity may relate to the flatness of the wage because there is no incentive to increase the variable i.e. the selling of more goods and services. A Salesperson is meant to sell as much as they can, without commission a worker that sells one unit receives the same wage as a worker that sells one hundred units. This is moral hazard. Clearly food banks enter into this discussion because as a means to equip oneself with emergency relief food is vital to survival; man’s basic requirements of food, shelter and clothing are the basic necessities required regardless of culture, belief, demographic etc.

The Trussell Trust are the largest food bank group in the UK. They actually began in 1994 and usually work as an intermediary between different social groups as a gap to help vulnerable members of society. This means that people are advised to go to a bank where they will usually be given three days’ worth of food, a person to talk to and advice to help them along what is usually a difficult journey. This is honorable and noble work.

Ultimately Food Banks present society with a huge dilemma. The graph below illustrates the dramatic increase from the market leading food bank.

The Trussell Trust

In 2011 some 128,697 adults used the Trussell Trust’s facilities, there were also ninety six facilities nationwide and these banks would open two to three days a week. In 2015 there are now four hundred and fourteen banks opening seven days a week. This is an increase of over four times the amount in just four years, equating to around a 100% increase every year. This is a huge increase in supply. The growing problem of food bank usage is the poverty consciousness it has instilled into our public psyche. Of course the mass media’s coverage of the economy is usually one of “tough” economic times and buzzwords such as “debt” and “difficulty” also shapes our collective thought and thus helps shape the societal narrative if you will.

This increasing form of dependency represents a complex moral hazard: should some food banks close in order to promote self-sufficiency?

This is one of the problems with strict economic analysis, it can be rather limiting when discussing sensitive issues, such as charity. However, a benefit for this form of analysis is the fact that when we do look at the facts, as crude as that can be sometimes, we can narrow down at what is vital and what is not. If more food banks closed people would be forced to find food elsewhere, agencies such as schools, sometimes police, social services and even GPs in small areas are all responsible for sending members of the public to food banks. The dependency the food bank increase has caused has maybe prompted an over reliance upon their use. And an over reliance on charitable handouts only prolongs the problem; without self-evaluation to confront the larger issue at hand the user will be going around in a slow circle.

The evidence presented does show that the increase in food banks supply from the market leader (ninety six in 2011 to four hundred and fourteen in 2015) a proportionate increase in demand. The users and social agencies utilizing food banks could not send people to food banks if their number was capped or they did not exist, they would be forced to seek nutrition from another means and self-sufficiency is the only cure for people who rely on charity. Another unfortunate problem is the fact that many of the main users of foods banks are children. According to Barnardo’s 33% of all children in the UK live in poverty. Not only does this mean they are immediately more susceptible to health concerns, monetary issues and their educational achievement but they are more likely to be recommended by their schools and social services for food bank usage. From 82,679 children in 2011 to 687,607 in 2015. What kind of future does a child have if they become so used to charitable handouts as a means of provision?

Food banks are a fantastic one off stop to help people in desperate times; a buffer to enable a person or people to get back onto their feet. When they were incepted they probably had this idea. The increase in food banks and thus their usage is an unfortunate concern as an over dependency creates problems and this can only prolong the negativity that the food is trying alleviate. The increase in usage is partly down to an increase in supply of facilities themselves, the mass media coverage and austerity policies. The government could impose a cap on how many banks are allowed to operate but this is unlikely due to the laissez faire attitude from the government.

An increase in charitable handouts is a sad consequence that has no direct route or origin, but austerity has certainly played a part.

Has The Government Improved The Standard Of Living In The UK?

With General Election campaigns well under way and the speculative dust settled from the 2015 Budget the timing is right for an analytical look at the coalition and their five-year premiership so far. This piece is not aimed at dissecting each manifesto claim made by the Tories, rather a commentary on living standards in the UK today.

Have the government’s policies actually improved the living standards of the average UK citizen?

Measuring living standards and the statistics and data used is critical to illustrate an accurate portrayal of actual living standards for the average person. Undoubtedly aggregate figures are important, especially when making macro comparisons with other economies. Nonetheless individuals should also be made aware with stats and figures they can truly relate to; GDP Per Capita figures give a clearer indication of this because they show the average wage per person. Moreover, people can see what the average person earns; they can also use the figure and compare how they are doing in comparison.

To arrive at a GDP per capita figure we take the Gross Domestic Product, (the sum of all work, spending and production) and we divide that by the total population we then arrive at a GDP per capita figure. This figure is a more accurate representation of the living standards for the average Briton as it provides the mean wage for everyone in the nation. Like all stats, always take them with a pinch of salt and never consider them to be final or conclusive, rather a useful analytical tool used to portray the bigger picture.

If we go back to 2009 the UK and most advanced economies were in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Wall Street crash of 1929. I have opined my thoughts on the matter here and here. Prior to the hung parliament and David Cameron assuming leadership, Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister at the time and his Chancellor Alastair Darling, sanctioned tax payer’s money to be used on “bailing out the banks.” The term often used to describe the process that saw taxes being deployed as a monetary safety net for the struggling banks; banks that would have been crushed by their own recklessness had the tax funded finance package not arrived.

It is worth mentioning the background to the crisis in some minor detail as Prime Minister David Cameron has described this election as the “most important in a generation.” This is because the Tories have structured their election campaign on their idea of economic recovery and why continuity rather than change is required for the citizens in the UK. In the pre-election Budget Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne claimed, “Our economy had suffered a collapse greater than almost any country.”

Britain’s GDP like other nations suffered as a result of the global financial crash but can The Chancellor truly suggest that the financial crisis hit Britain as hard as some of the less developed nations such as Ireland, Greece or Portugal? The UK is not a Eurozone member, so it does not have to adjust economic policy in line with eighteen other nations, unlike the mentioned nations. In addition, nations such as France and Germany have higher GDP and GDP per capita figures than the UK. Both are members of what is clearly an unbalanced monetary union and still have had a stronger recovery in living standard terms since 2009.

Mr. Osborne added:

“Five years ago, living standards were set back years by the great recession. Today, the latest projections show that living standards will be higher than when we took office.”

At a time when the electorate needed reassurances and tangible evidence of a recovery it seemed a little odd to refer to living standard projections rather than the subsequent record during the coalition’s time in office. The graph below highlights GDP per capita from 2007-2014:

World Bank

As you can see in 2009 when the coalition took office living standards where at the lowest point on the range displayed. This is no surprise as the aftermath of the banking crisis combined with the deficit reduction policies imposed by the government caused a shock to the economic system. Since then living standards have been the lowest among Britain’s adversaries, Germany and France respectively. So it remains unclear what the Chancellor meant when he proudly professed “Britain was walking tall again.”

According to ONS figures, unemployment in the UK ( February 5.7%) is lower than France (10.6%), Germany (4.8%) has a lower rate however; but the news was welcomed by the coalition. With French unemployment higher than the UK’s it highlights the importance of looking at the average wage per person as opposed to other figures because they do not portray a clearer picture of living standards.

Unemployment figures cannot account for underemployment. Underemployment looks at labour utilization (how productive workers are) as opposed to just labour (people in jobs). For example, a PHD holder working in a fast food restaurant is said to be “underemployed” because they posses a skill set that exceeds their requirements for the role, yet they are employed nonetheless. An extreme example yes but the idea is to look at situations where highly qualified individuals are accepting roles where their skills are not enhanced or utilized. This is a likely factor behind the UK’s laborious productivity and why it can have more people in jobs yet lower wages for those workers. According to the Bank of England in their Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q2

“Since the onset of the 2007-08 financial crisis, labour productivity in the United Kingdom has been exceptionally weak. Despite some modest improvements in 2013, whole-economy output per hour remains around 16% below the level implied by its pre-crisis trend.”

In addition to that, Stephanie Flanders writing in the Financial Times suggests:

 “That the average UK worker, in Yorkshire or anywhere else, now produces less in five days than a French one does in four.”

Clearly the recovery is not close to pre-crisis levels so the government has not raised living standards for the average UK citizen. With slothful productivity levels systemic of what little recovery the nation has seen, it is difficult to fathom how the Chancellor could be so optimistic when clearly the past five years have been subdued. Political rhetoric should not be confused with economic reality and the reality is clear: living standards in the UK are not close to pre-crisis levels.

Great Read

Hello World.

Liam Halligan has a reputation as a straight-talking, logical and insightful journalist and this piece is no different. In his piece in The Telegraph Halligan discusses the present banking system in place in the UK and more specifically highlights the link between Investment and retail divisions. He goes on to explain and clarify that only complete separation will ensure catastrophic government bail-outs will not occur in the future, which could potentially save taxpayers billions. I’ve touched on this issue here.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10822521/Only-full-separation-will-make-our-big-banks-safe.html

Read of the Week

Hello world. This weeks read is from The Guardian and it confirms the unfortunate reality of long and sustained periods of austerity having an adverse effect on economies. This Red Cross study focuses on Europe and highlights a notion I have been writing about for a while now: austerity alone will not result in growth.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/10/austerity-europe-debt-red-cross

5 ways to make yourself recession proof

Don’t let a recession do this to you.

Technically we are no longer in a recession, but the slow economy, the stagnate demand and the prolonged miserable feeling in society does make it feel as if we are in one.  In the likely event that there will be recessions in the future, follow these steps and you’ll have more than enough tools to make the most of what are difficult times.

1)   Stay positive.  Maintaining a positive mindset is critical to ensuring the negative economic activity does not have the desired impact. Yes one must be realistic and admit things like credit will be harder to obtain and jobs are more difficult to get. But staying positive about what you do already have, i.e. a good education and ambition should provide a solid foundation on which you could make yourself exempt from the negativity associated with a recession.

2)   Work hard. Nothing can beat putting in a solid shift and few things are as rewarding as when you focus on a goal and achieved it through sheer hard work. Moreover, the difficulties of the current situation ensure that there has never been a more important time to work hard. It sounds a little condescending, but rest assured, it is a quiet and effective remedy that could set you apart from others. It applies to any field, any occupation and it has proven results. Working hard is even more important during a recession. Hard work always pays off.

3)   Try to save for long-term gain.  As there is less economic activity going on, the majority of society is simultaneously feeling the effects of less demand; therefore people’s consumption patterns tend to be the same. Therefore, now is a better time than any to put some money away. This idea may seem paradoxical in nature, the fact is when an economy has weak demand you want people spending, not saving. However, on a personal level, those that have utilised savings in the past often enjoy consumption more, mainly because they can afford more, because they have saved. This step does involve sacrificing certain goods or activities but if you think long-term, then it will prove to be an essential method of making yourself recession proof.

4)   Invest in yourself.  This is open to interpretation, but investing in yourself, i.e. increasing your skill set is a valuable way to make yourself more employable, make you feel better about being you and you’ll have a new skill/skills for life. People should always look at ways they can improve. There are thousands of free online courses, podcasts, ebooks and so on out there for people to utilise. Gone are the days where education was exclusive to classrooms. Make the most of it.

5)   Pay attention to the media, but put issues in a personal perspective. Ensuring that you are well-read, clued up and know various facts about an issue will help you deal with it a lot better. However, there is a real danger that the media goes from informing to dictating certain views and on economic issues, this can be detrimental. So always remember to take issues on the economy with a pinch of salt as the news deals in aggregates and cannot accurately factor in individual households. You can however, so ensure to use the media to your advantage.

Read of the week

This is a great piece from Robert Skidelsky. He’s touching on similar themes I alluded to in my last piece. Its certainly worth reading.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-predictable-failure-of-fiscal-austerity-by-robert-skidelsky

What actually happened? A brief look at the Global Financial Crisis.

How did the global financial crisis result in large government sector cuts?

The events of 2007 are very well documented. There has been a plethora of texts published, journal articles, books, magazine articles etc. dedicated to covering the horrific downturn of several leading financial markets in 2007. The crash ensured that several billions worth of Sterling, Dollars, Yen and so on were given to numerous financial institutions that were deemed “too big to fail.” The term “too big to fail” is theoretically questionable to say the least, a point I shall discuss further as this piece develops. The significance of the bailout funds were the fact that they were generated from taxes. What was clear however about the government bailouts, particularly in the UK, was the fact that institutions such as Northern Rock (now Virgin Money) and RBS would have collapsed had the government chosen to ignore their pleas and let them fail. It is worth remembering that between 1995-2006 a period of unfettered market capitalism allowed substantial financial products to penetrate several economies. A brand new phenomenon that several households had very little exposure nor knowledge too. It would become clear in the years to follow that this imperfect information would have devastating effects on the entire global economy. This period where credit was “pumped” into the economy was truly unique.

Stock crash

Austerity policies have been discussed in some depth on this blog, my pieces here and here are pieces I wrote, I attempt to ask certain questions about government policy and question the notion that government policy could actually be having an adverse effect on the UK economy. The UK (much like the rest of the areas affected heavily by the global banking crash) have adopted a set of rigid public sector cuts, designed to reduce the large dependency on government for goods and services and also because the current government deem the current debt-to-GDP too high. (86%)

If one were to assess austerity in the UK so far could anyone deem the set of policies a success? Of course, the government intends for their policies to have much longer effects, a legacy effect if you will, but that should not come at the peril of current generations, for governments should dictate policy for both now and the future. Moreover, economists such as Stiglitz, Krugman, Solow, Diamond, Sharpe, Skidelsky and several others all warned against excessive fiscal cuts. There is no empirical evidence of any large economy cutting its way to prosperity. Yet what could easily be described as a gamble or the set of ideologically driven policies have ensured that in the UK and much of the developed world have had their economies remain flat since 2011, having slumped from 2009-2011.

In 2009 the rhetoric around fiscal policy changed. If you go back to Tony Blair’s premiership I do not remember anybody on either side of the House quibbling about government spending, in fact the opposite. The then Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne stated that he would match Labour’s spending. Spending he would later tirade about once he became Chancellor. Moreover, Labour made several economic mistakes one of them was the heavy deregulation of the financial markets that actually allowed a steady and then volatile flow of cheap and available credit to flood the economy. Too many people binged on cheap and available credit and several institutions capitalised on this and were making substantial profits as a result. Making profits is part of our societal fabric and that is not my issue, but in the business world, if a firm does not make profit, eventually that business is driven out and replaced by one that will. This to me that is the essence of capitalism. Why then was RBS, Northern Rock or Lloyds bailed out? Okay, anybody with an account with those firms would have lost their money, which is very unfortunate, but in a market economy, an economy In which proponents of free-market capitalism constantly bombard against government interference, where more than happy to accept taxpayers money. Some clarity would be great because these are the same institutions that support, lobby and advocate for laissez faire policies yet accept the ultimate form of government intervention. This anomaly still baffles me and it is unfortunate that we are still paying the heavy price for the actions of a few financial institutions. Moreover it was the substantial bank bailouts, not excessive government expenditure that caused such a sharp rise in the high levels of public sector debt. Debt that is being tackled with austerity policies. Nothing should ever be “too big to fail” because that is the antithesis of a competitive free market, the kind of market that is encouraged in the UK. The government should have let the failing banks fail so other banks could learn that reckless and irrational behaviour should not be tolerated. It would have been a message of biblical proportions. Without bailing the banks out we would not need austerity and six years and more of lost or flat output. It appears that policy has not favoured the majority of the population who are still readjusting to the large structural changes that have taken place since 2009. The graph below is an economic outlook for the UK and makes for miserable reading.

My main qualm lies with blaming government spending. I have maintained from the outset that some government cuts are good, just like in a household or with your personal consumption; you assess what you are spending and cut what is not required. Fair enough. The extent at which the government in the UK and in several nations in the Euro Zone has undertaken huge public sector cuts and perhaps more importantly, the rate at which they have penetrated society is likely to have long lasting negative effects. So far they have proved highly ineffective in producing genuine economic growth as the graph above displays. It should be noted that anything above zero is “growth,” however, in reality people need what I call tangible growth. If more buildings go up, more roads are finished, more bridges and so on are completed then people up and down the nation will actually see growth for themselves. Obviously all those examples require large labour input. We have not had enough of that in the UK. Those examples also highlight investment and investment has what we call in economics a multiplier effect. Simply put, the government spends £1, that £1 generates more that the initial £1 invested say another £1, then the additional £1 can be reinvested on top of the original £1, so the good or service can generate a much higher multiplier, say £3 in the future. What is important is that it comes from the initial £1 investment. This period (2007-period day) of flat economic activity has needed and needs fiscal investment.

Even with an extremely accommodative monetary policy in the sense that the interest rate has been 0.5% since March 2009 the government’s reluctance to deviate away from an ineffective set of policies is detrimental to the economy. Now is as good a time than ever to undergo strategic and logical investment programmes. Instead, the large public sector cuts have actually been damaging to the government’s deficit reduction plan because unemployment is rising, therefore, transfer payments in the form of Job Seekers Allowances and Unemployment benefits have increased. If the government were to run public sector cuts with substantial investment programmes and run them simultaneously, shifting resources away from areas deemed to be wasting government funds and invest in areas with high returns this would be a better set of policies. Instead, we just have the negativity associated with public sector cuts, which has made the private sector less responsive as a result of the lack of economic activity and weak demand from majority of the public.

It is impossible to cut your way out of a recession; nations need to invest wisely in order to grow. America pulled itself out of recession because their production levels in the late 1930s and early 1940s substantially boosted their economy. The point is, they invested. There was an economic crash and the government invested. The New Deal (America’s recovery plan) took several years to have a noticeable effect on the economy, but it was investment that helped aid their recovery.

The government’s gamble still has not paid off and the UK does not appear to be changing any time soon. Governments need to spend in order to get a return. Without it, our economy shall remain sluggish for some time and this is a direct result of the aftermath of the global banking crisis, not excessive government expenditure.

Read of the week

Another great piece from Quartz.com. This piece highlights the fall in UK manufacturing. The UK economy has shifted substantially from manufacturing  to that of one that is more dependent on services. In terms of a mulitplier effect, manufacturing tends to have a greater effect on the economy, in the sense that manufacturing requires more investment and generally speaking, it creates more jobs.

http://qz.com/101924

Paul Krugman on BBC HARDtalk

Although this interview was conducted some twelve months ago Professor Krugman’s arguments about how to end the Great Recession are more potent than ever. Professor Krugman is a well known Keynesian and he has been advocating for more government expenditure. Although the government in the UK are extremely unlikely to change from its programme of fiscal consolidation, empirical evidence does suggest that substantial government spending is the most effective method to restoring economic growth during a recession. Krugman used the example of America post 1930 and Roosevelt’s “New Deal,” an economic plan designed to boost the American economy through government spending.

 

Read Of The Week

Hello world. As I mentioned in a previous piece I wrote in October 2012 the Euro zone is in a precarious economic and social position. Having said that, some of the highest earning CEOs reside in the nations most affected by the fiscal consolidation polices being adopted within the area. These policies have contributed to the huge levels of unemployment and led to high levels of social discontent.

This piece is from global economic website Quartz. Take a look.

http://qz.com/92418